The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 2), Dolly Parton’s rock-themed new set is in the mix for the No. 1 spot, but faces competition from recent Drake and Taylor Swift blockbusters.
Dolly Parton, Rockstar (Butterfly/Big Machine): When Dolly Parton was nominated for (and later inducted into) the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame – despite a career mostly spent in country music and other rootsier genres – she was inspired to retroactively make good on her rock icon status by recording her first-ever full-length rock set. That album materialized on Friday with Rockstar, a 30-track affair that features the beloved singer-songwriter fully plugging into the genre, with a combination of covers and originals, and help from such legendary guests as Sting, Steven Tyler, Debbie Harry, Rob Halford, Elton John and of course goddaughter and frequent collaborator Miley Cyrus.
While Rockstar may not be particularly massive on streaming – though having 30 total tracks to stream will certainly help with those totals – it is expected to sell very well. It’s of course helped by the months of buzz generated by Parton’s Rock Hall embrace and her subsequent genre pivot, but even more so by the album’s wide availability: It’s being sold in more than 10 vinyl variants, including exclusive editions for Walmart, Barnes & Noble, Target, indie stores and (appropriately) the Rock Hall’s webstore, and is even being sold at less-traditional retailers like Cracker Barrel, Dollar General and HSN. (She could also get a late-week boost in visibility this Thursday, when she performs at halftime of the NFL’s Thanksgiving showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders, though that boost will most likely be limited to digital album sales and streaming services, due to most brick-and-mortar stores being closed on the holiday.) )
If all this adds up to enough sales for Rockstar to claim the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200, it would make for a benchmark moment in the country legend’s career: Despite visiting the chart 49 times – dating back to her first appearance in 1969 – Parton has yet to reach its apex, having only reached the top 10 twice. (She came closest in 1987, with the Emmylou Harris and Linda Ronstadt team-up set Trio, and with 2014’s Blue Smoke, both of which reached No. 6.)
Drake, For All the Dogs (OVO/Republic): Drake’s latest already topped the Billboard 200 upon its October debut, and it’s hung around the chart’s top five in the five weeks since. Next week, For All the Dogs should get another boost from the added attention and consumption resulting from the release of its new Scary Hours edition, which adds six extra cuts to the already-24-track set, including the J. Cole-featuring “Evil Ways.” As usual with Drake, the bonus songs are performing excellently on streaming, so Parton should beware of Dogs potentially securing an equivalent album unit total in the six digits, presenting a real challenge to her securing her first-ever No. 1 on the Billboard 200.
Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): Drake himself acknowledged Taylor Swift’s chart supremacy on his Scary Hours cut “Red Button,” calling her the “only one [who] could make me drop the album just a little later.” Swift’s latest (and biggest yet) blockbuster re-recording spent its first two weeks atop the Billboard 200, before falling to No. 2 behind Stray Kids’ Rock-Star on last week’s chart (dated Nov. 25). That sales-driven chart-topper will likely fall out of the mix for the top spot in its second week — but Swift’s should hang around, as the set continues to sell well, and several of her new Taylor’s Versions remain on the daily U.S. charts at the biggest DSPs.
IN THE MIX
ENHYPEN, Orange Blood (Befit Lab/YG): South Korean pop group ENHYPEN has inched closer to the top of the Billboard 200 with each of their last three EPs, securing their highest position on the chart with May’s No. 4-debuting Dark Blood. They’ll have a shot to one-up that finish with last Friday’s six-track Orange Blood, which should post strong sales – helped by 12 collectible CD variants with branded merch inside, and exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target and Walmart, as well as a webstore-exclusive digital edition with seven voice memos from the group members.
2 Chainz & Lil Wayne, Welcome 2 Collegrove (Def Jam/Gamebread): With six No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200 between them, rap greats 2 Chainz and Lil Wayne team up for a second collaborative album with this month’s Welcome 2 Collegrove, follow-up to 2016’s No. 4-peaking Collegrove. The 21-track effort also features appearances from big names like Rick Ross, 21 Savage and Usher, and a signed CD of the set is available through the duo’s official webstore.
Andre 3000, New Blue Sun (Epic/Sony): One of the late year’s most-discussed sets has been hip-hop legend Andre 3000’s ambient, rap-less set New Blue Sun, announced just a couple days before its release last Friday. Though as half of OutKast, Andre reached the top two of the Billboard 200 five times, New Blue Sun is not expected to stream enough to really make it a contender for the top spot (and is not yet available for physical purchase) — but it will almost certainly be the highest-ranking album of woodwind instrumentals on next week’s chart.
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