NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani is believed to already have received multiple bids well north of $500 million, and some speculate he could even wind up as baseball’s first $600 million man — or come close, at least.
If the Ohtani bidding — which appears to involve at least five teams at present — does hit $600 million, he will be breaking Yankees superstar Aaron Judge’s record $360 million free agent contract by two-thirds, or an amazing 67 percent. (Ohtani’s longtime teammate Mike Trout signed with the Angels as a non-free agent, also for $360 million, bringing the team commitment to a record $426 million that will also be obliterated here.)
The Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants and incumbent Angels are believed to be among the teams still in the bidding for the two-time MVP. While it’s been suggested elsewhere there may also a sixth mystery team, that’s uncertain, so for all intents and purposes those five clubs until further notice could be considered the finalists for the international sensation.
The Yankees and Mets have checked in but thus far appear to be on the periphery of the once-in-a-lifetime derby, at best.
Ohtani is much more expensive for teams with high payrolls since the so-called Steve Cohen tax above the highest threshold is going up to 110 percent this season, meaning a team at or above that threshold, such as the Mets and likely the Yankees, would pay more than double Ohtani’s salary, counting the tax. True or not, the Yankees also had the impression six years ago that Ohtani was reluctant to sign in New York.
The aggressive early bids could mean Ohtani will be signing somewhat soon, though there’s no guarantee a deal will get done at the Winter Meetings that begin here Monday. The Ohtani sweepstakes may be holding up the hitting market, as very few hitters have signed so far — Jason Heyward’s $9 million deal with the Dodgers is an exception — although it is an especially weak overall market overall, and that may be the bigger factor.
The Dodgers, long speculated as an Ohtani favorite but normally pretty conservative when it comes to free agent contracts, are thought to be right in the middle of the bidding. One thing to consider: Ohtani seems unusual in that he doesn’t appear to particularly be about the money. When he came over, a couple years before he could have become a full-fledged free agent, he knew he’d have to play for a tiny fraction of his worth for six years, and he did.
Although in predicting the landing spot, there’s been little more to go on beyond the reading of tea leaves, some speculate geography may be a factor, and five of the seven finalists six years ago were on the West Coast. The Dodgers may be extra attractive as a team that wins more consistently than anyone else. The Angels shouldn’t be counted out, either, as they’ve wisely allowed him to hit and pitch simultaneously, proving he is a once-in-a-century player.
It’s no surprise Ohtani will smash baseball’s contract records since he is one of the game’s best hitters and also one of its best pitchers — although he won’t be able to pitch until 2025 after recently undergoing elbow surgery a couple months ago.
Plus, Ohtani’s international celebrity and the prospect of him regaining two-way dominance in 2025 make him the most special free agent probably ever, even above the Alex Rodriguez derby nearly a generation ago, when A-Rod doubled the record deal for North American team sports with a $252 million contract that doubled NBA star Kevin Garnett’s previous record $126 million deal.
While baseball players can’t dominate games like basketball players or quarterbacks, Ohtani brings a unique marketing value that may be hard for teams other than the Angels to quantify. While the Dodgers come close to selling out now and are locked into a record TV deal, the team of the great Jackie Robinson is said to also have a particular appreciation for this history-making player.
Some have estimated Ohtani’s off-field value to the team to be between $20 million and $35 million and there’s talk of Ohtani “paying for himself” (to some degree, anyway). Of course, those figures are only a rough estimate and likely vary wildly depending on the team. Much more is known about his ballplaying abilities, which have led to two unanimous American League MVPs in three years, with a second place finish sandwiched in between the winning years, when he only lost out to Judge, who needed to break Roger Maris’ AL home run record to dislodge him from the top spot.
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