The Packers have turned their season around with wins in three of their past four, including a Thanksgiving upset of the Lions.
Despite injuries piling up on both sides of the ball, playoff hopes remain alive for Jordan Love and Co.
Their toughest test of the regular season comes Sunday night at Lambeau Field when the Chiefs come to town.
Rumors of Taylor Swift making an appearance are swirling, and though all eyes are on Travis Kelce, I’m looking toward a different tight end on prime time.
That’s Green Bay tight end Tucker Kraft, who has become the starter in wake of Luke Musgrave’s injury.
He scored a touchdown in last week’s win over the Lions and enters with a receiving yards prop of 26.5 on Sunday.
I’m looking to fade the rookie, as his Under is one of the biggest edges in Action Network’s projections for this game.
As mentioned earlier, it’s likely many people said, “Who?” when Kraft found the end zone last week.
That’s because he’s mainly a blocking tight end who has been thrust into a starting role due to injury.
Even when Musgrave was healthy, though, Kraft would play around 40-50 percent of the snaps.
He was just in there primarily as a blocker rather than making an impact in the receiving game like Musgrave.
In that win last week, Kraft totaled just 15 receiving yards on two catches.
He went over this 26.5 yards prop once this season, but it came off a checkdown in which Kraft broke a tackle and racked up over 20 yards post-catch.
When looking into his receiving profile more, Kraft has broken a double-digit gain just once.
That’s because his average depth of target is just 2.8 yards.
He doesn’t run downfield routes, rather stays in to block before breaking off for a checkdown opportunity.
That limits his chances at an explosive play.
Though he was able to rip one off against the Chargers, I’m not so sure Kraft fares well in a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks among the best in the NFL.
Kansas City is seventh in DVOA against the tight end position, and aside from Michael Mayer — he eked over this 26.5 number with 27 last week — no tight end has totaled 27-plus since week Week 5. And that tight end was T.J. Hockenson (51 yards).
The Chiefs also play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, nearly a third of the time.
That means Kraft will likely be met immediately after hauling in a pass, and given his low aDOT, short gains are expected.
For what it’s worth, the Jets are the only team where a tight end was able to rip off a gain of 20-plus yards.
The Chiefs linebacking group is elite at keeping tight ends as a whole in check (allowing fewer than four receptions per game).
It’ll take either an explosive play or 4-5 receptions for Kraft to break this number, both of which seem unlikely.
Betting on the NFL?
He isn’t one of the first options in his offense like other tight ends that faced K.C. — Hockenson, even Tyler Conklin and Cole Kmet — rather he’s a safety valve for Love.
Kraft has yet to haul in more than two receptions in a game.
While the spread is near a touchdown, I expect this game to be closer given Green Bay’s recent success and the Kansas City offense sputtering at times.
Even against the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs started out slow — it wasn’t until late when they pulled away.
Jayden Reed’s return to practice is a positive for this offense but also a negative for Kraft — who will likely see a small target share Sunday.
I trust the projections and believe this is too tough a matchup for Kraft despite his recent success.
Fade the first-year tight end Sunday night.
Source
