Imagine betting on a prop that never had a shot.
A strange betting market was released on DraftKings earlier in the week where you can bet on a player to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, even if the team is eliminated four weeks prior, and it caused quite a stir on social media.
Being innovative in this industry is how sportsbooks get ahead, but sometimes innovation falls flat on its face.
In this case, you’re hoping that the team of the player you bet makes the Super Bowl, and you can maybe get some closing line value (CLV) come early February.
But if your player doesn’t make it to the big game, that bet is still action, graded as a loss and your money will be donated to the gambling giant.
For example, if the Lions are eliminated in the Wild Card round against the Rams and you bet on Jahmyr Gibbs to score a touchdown (11/1), your bet will be graded as a loss.
That’s how most of these bets will go.
Initially, the market didn’t even list that all bets were action.
In order to see the stipulation that all bets were action, you initially had to add it to your betslip in order to see the fine print.
X user Neil Greenberg called the market “predatory” in a post of the betting market.
DraftKings changed the wording not long after 4for4Football’s Connor Allen initially posted the market on social media, adding “all bets are action” directly under the actual market.
“Insane because you’d get better money just betting the moneyline for each game for the teams to make the Super Bowl,” @MillyMakerSZN commented on X.
One that caught bettors’ attention was Najee Harris to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, which opened at 35/1 — particularly egregious considering the Steelers are 45/1 to reach the Super Bowl.
This one could’ve been a mistake, as DraftKings has since moved his odds to 90/1.
But there are other terrible examples in this betting market.
Another tough one to look at is Ronnie Bell at 14/1 to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
The 49ers are -125 to reach the Super Bowl, and Bell’s average TD scorer prop odds were +1888.89 in his last nine games of the season.
He only caught six passes this season.
This line should be about 30/1 at least and could go higher, considering he was 45/1 to score a touchdown just last week against the Rams, which he did on his lone reception.
Betting on the NFL?
This betting market is essentially a parlay of the team to win their next three games (win the conference) and then that player to score a touchdown.
Projecting out odds isn’t easy, but pending matchups, here are a few examples you can use to find the true value of these props.
- Christian McCaffrey: 49ers win Conference Championship (-125) + Projected TD scorer odds (-200?)
- Tony Pollard: Cowboys win Conference Championship (+340) + Projected TD scorer odds (-110?)
- Ronnie Bell: 49ers win Conference Championship (-125) + Projected TD scorer odds (+15/1?)
Using the projections listed above, the true odds for McCaffrey would make a fair value around +176, pending how the bracket shakes out, while Pollard’s would be around +740. Bell’s comes in at +2780 using the above formula.
These are subject to change with upsets and matchups, etc., but regardless, the vigorish on these lines is quite high, and bettors made their feelings known.
You are better off getting the team to win each playoff game, rolling over the winnings, and then betting on a player of your choosing to score a touchdown on Feb. 11.
Source
