Predictions, even the seemingly unbiased ones spit out by computers, are silly.
Because you can take a piece of information such as the Yankees will be without ace Gerrit Cole for at least two months and know — I mean know — that they will be, at best, trying to survive whatever the rotation offers until the ace’s June return.
Except going into the weekend, thus even before Clarke Schmidt’s 6 ²/₃ shutout innings Friday, Yankees starters without Cole this year (3.46) were a run a game better than last year (4.44) when he won the Cy Young award and AL ERA title (2.63).
The Yankees began the season with a 71.2 percent chance to reach the playoffs, according to Fangraphs modeling. Those already good odds have skyrocketed to 89.9 percent (all data is entering the weekend), namely because the Cole-free rotation has performed so well.
The fivesome of Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman have not only stayed injury-free, but are the lone team that has five pitchers with at least seven starts and an ERA-plus of 100 or more.
Juan Soto’s excellence obviously also has been central to the success. But the Yankees’ 18.7 percentage point increase was only sixth-best — in part because they started high and there is just so much ceiling to go. And perhaps because the system was so mistakenly low on the Phillies and Orioles. But with a quarter of a season now played, let’s take a look at the five highest risers in playoffs likelihood to investigate why they have climbed and if it is sustainable:
Phillies (from 55.5 percent to 92.3, plus 36.8)
The past two seasons — when they won the NL title and reached the NLCS — the Phillies played from behind. They were 18-20 after 38 games in 2022 and 19-19 last year. This year they were 26-12 — the third-best 38-game mark for a franchise that began in 1883. The 2024 Phillies led the NL East by two games over the Braves, who have won the division in each of the past six seasons.
The key has been a rotation, which has by far the highest Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs) and is the only group averaging six innings a start to help protect a somewhat wobbly relief group. With Cole out, Wheeler is the sport’s preeminent ace horse. He was the only NL pitcher with five starts of six innings or more and one or zero earned runs. He and teammate Ranger Suarez are the only NL pitchers with five starts of six innings or more and one or zero earned runs. Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Spencer Turnbull (now replaced by Taijuan Walker) had a 2.98 ERA over 21 combined starts.
Philadelphia is just beginning six weeks without shortstop Trea Turner. But this is a veteran hard-nosed group that knows how to win. They belong in the conversation with the Braves and Dodgers for the best NL team.
Orioles (51.8 to 85.7, plus 33.9)
The preseason predictive systems did not love the Orioles, perhaps because youth is volatile. But Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman have further proved they are cornerstones. The expected third tentpole, Jackson Holliday, failed his first test (2-for-34), but Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg have emerged while Ryan O’Hearn has shown last year was no journeyman fluke. That quintet plus Ryan Mountcastle gave the Orioles six players with at least 80 plate appearances and an OPS-plus of 130 or more — only the Dodgers with seven had more.
Kyle Bradish and John Means recently rejoined a rotation solidified by the acquisition of Corbin Burnes. Philadelphia let closer Craig Kimbrel leave, Baltimore signed him and both will probably have to address closer between now and the July 30 trade deadline. But the Orioles are going to contend for the foreseeable future.
Brewers (30.6 to 59.2, plus 28.6)
Despite trading Burnes and having likely being without Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) for the season, Milwaukee was in first place. Joey Ortiz (a piece of the Burnes return) has helped the offense average five runs per game. The Brewers and Phillies were the majors’ only 40-40 teams — at least 40 homers and 40 steals. Brice Turang is 15-for-15 in steals.
Like when David Stearns ran this operation, Matt Arnold has found quality relief help from the anonymity pool — think Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig. But that Burnes-less rotation probably will have to be addressed even if it is akin to the league-average work the Brewers received last year from Adrian Houser (who could become available as the Mets get starters back from injury and work in Christian Scott). Milwaukee probably needs more than just a stabilizer, however.
Cubs (41.1 to 68.9, plus 27.8)
The Cubs were outside the top 10 in runs scored per game and allowed, and were 18th in Defensive Runs Saved. They were in playoff position because Shota Imanaga has put himself in play for both NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young — combining with Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon and Hayden Wesnewski to go 13-1 with a 1.35 ERA. That is not sustainable.
They had just one position player in the top 119 of Baseball Reference WAR in Mike Tauchman at 94th. The Cubs need a lot more from Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson (who was placed on the IL on Friday), though the NL Central is tepid enough that they should be in the race the whole way.
Royals (13.0 to 35.8, plus 18.7)
That Wheeler/Suarez stat (at least six innings, zero or one earned run), Seth Lugo was one of three AL starters who also had done that five times. Lugo, Cole Ragans and Brady Singer had combined for a 2.51 ERA in 24 starts, and Kansas City had parlayed that with elite defense into a 3.39 team ERA. It was 5.17 last year.
That will be difficult to maintain all season, yet the big issue is an offense in which Bobby Witt Jr. might be the one-quarter AL MVP and Salvador Perez is having the kind of late-career season to burnish a Hall of Fame candidacy. But the Royals are just not receiving enough impact from homegrown youngsters such as Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, Michael Massey and MJ Melendez, while free-agent signings Adam Frazier, who hit a winning home run Friday night, and Hunter Renfroe have been among the majors’ worst hitters.
The Royals lost 106 times last year, thus, even an assault on .500 would be a huge step forward — and is now in play. And the AL Central might be meek enough that .500-ish will keep Kansas City in the race.
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