Littered with injuries to key players on their defense and most recently tight end Dawson Knox, the Buffalo Bills are getting close to pressing the panic button.
They have lost two of their last three — you could argue Buffalo was fortunate to even have a win, given the New York Giants’ ineptitude on the 1-yard line — and “Thursday Night Football” presents a perfect get-right opportunity against the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about taking James Cook’s rushing yards Over against the Giants, and he cleared his prop with 71 yards.
Despite a time share with Latavius Murray in the backfield, I expect Cook to find success once again against the Bucs.
Murray is nothing more than a goal-line back and touchdown vulture for Cook, yet Buffalo has committed to using him at a near 50-50 split.
While the Bills like to put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands and throw it early and often, I expect a more rush-heavy approach here — especially in a game with a spread north of a touchdown.
That means Cook should be getting meaningful carries. Aside from his 29-yard rush against Miami, Murray has broken just one double-digit carry.
Take that out and he averages just 3.14 yards per carry.
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Cook? He’s at 4.8 this season. And he ranks sixth in the NFL in gains of 10 yards or more (12).
There are few running backs as efficient and explosive as Cook, who is also just as powerful. He averages nearly 3 yards after contact per rush.
There are some concerns within this Buccaneers’ rush defense, too.
While they haven’t been burned by anyone aside from D’Andre Swift (130 yards on 16 carries), they have a bottom-five rush defense grade of 57.2, per PFF.
Last week, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson both broke the 50-yard mark against the Bucs.
Two weeks prior to that, Alvin Kamara also saw 51 yards on 4.6 per carry in a 26-9 Tampa Bay win.
Put simply, the Bucs’ rush defense is beatable.
Defensive tackle Vita Vea is also questionable and has yet to practice as of Wednesday morning.
His loss would be significant, leaving Greg Gaines as the primary replacement.
Through seven weeks, he has a rush defense grade of 49.4 vs. Vea’s 73.2, per PFF.
Sitting right around 50.5 yards — 51.5 at BetMGM— I believe Cook’s prop is too low.
In games where he gets 13+ carries, the 24-year-old has eclipsed 50+ yards every time (four).
When Buffalo wins, he is 3 of 4 to the Over.
Betting on the NFL?
I am expecting the Bills to utilize Cook more often given their recent results.
The offensive line ranks third in adjusted line yards and fifth in stuffed rate.
Allen has not looked great over the last couple of weeks under center, which could lead to added stress in the trenches.
It’s also interesting to note that while the Bills’ two main running backs had a near 50-50 timeshare last week, Murray had just four carries (to Cook’s 13).
In general, Murray has broken over six carries just once (12 against the Giants two weeks ago).
Cook is the clear RB1 in Buffalo.
Our Action Projections slate Cook for 61 yards, so there’s plenty of value here on the Bills running back.
Back Cook to cook once again in prime time and soar over this number.
I would even consider some alt lines, like 75+ (+330) or 100+ (+1075) as long shots at Bet365, too.
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