Austin Ekeler has struggled since his return from injury.
The star running back erupted for over 150 all-purpose yards against the Dolphins in the season opener before suffering an ankle injury that kept him out nearly a month.
Since then, he’s ran the ball 28 times for just 72 yards, or 2.57 yards per carry. Looking to snap their two-game losing streak, the Chargers return home to face the lowly Bears and backup quarterback Tyson Bagent. In a game in which they’re heavily favored, I expect Ekeler to finally have his breakthrough game.
Ekeler is often perceived as this dominant receiving back who has limited success in the ground game. But that’s far from true. The 28-year-old racked up 4.5 yards per carry last season.
It was a similar trajectory for Ekeler in 2022. He struggled out of the gate, with three straight games of fewer than 40 rushing yards. But in his fourth game, against the Texans, he scored three touchdowns and ran for 60 yards. That started a stretch in which he found the end zone in 11 of 13 games.
Ekeler has a great matchup Sunday night.
Since Justin Herbert has come to Los Angeles, the Chargers have been a pass-heavy team. But over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a commitment to the ground game, which bodes well for Ekeler.
The Chargers are dealing with plenty of injuries of their own to the receiving corp, with both Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett questionable. Mike Williams is out for the season, too.
That puts a lot of stress on Herbert and the offense, especially with Quentin Johnston’s rookie struggles on the outside. Ekeler can be that steady hand against a Bears rush defense that grades out slightly below league average.
Chicago is 16th in rush DVOA and has a Pro Football Focus rush defense grade of 60 (21st).
Though they kept Josh Jacobs in check last week — it was also a negative game script for the Raiders — we’ve seen others take advantage.
Jaleel McLaughlin ran for 72 yards on just seven carries. Rachaad White, who has struggled largely this year running, totaled 73 yards.
Even Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire finished with 50-plus yards.
I’m expecting similar success from the Chargers ground game.
They are above average in rush DVOA and should find themselves in a positive game script for the majority of the game.
If Ekeler is tallying 14-plus carries in losses, the same should hold true, if not more, in wins.
Betting on the NFL?
The Chargers are heavily favored for a reason. It follows a similar trajectory of my “Thursday Night Football” preview, where I said to bet on James Cook’s rushing yards prop.
Though it can become scary because of the pass-first tendencies out of both Buffalo and L.A., at the end of the day, there should be enough touches and breakaways to reach the 50-yard mark without an issue.
This is a great buy-low spot on Ekeler.
Given his struggles over the past couple of weeks, he’s become undervalued in the rushing market. In a bounce-back win on prime time, expect the Chargers to utilize their star running back as he soars over his current prop of 49.5 yards.
Source
