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Braves vs Phillies Pick
We supported Nola against the Braves back in September when the line was set at 4.5 strikeouts. This didn’t seem logical then, and it doesn’t appear any different now.
During the playoffs, there’s always a level of uncertainty regarding how long starting pitchers will remain in the game, especially in crucial matchups like Game 3. However, when it comes to the Phillies, Wheeler and Nola are the starting pitchers known for their ability to go deep into the game. Wheeler, who pitched an impressive 6 2/3 innings on Monday, comfortably achieved his line for outs recorded.
Nola’s line for outs recorded is at 15.5 with a tempting +110 odds, and he has consistently delivered by pitching six innings in each of his last nine starts against the Braves.
While I do have confidence that he can record 16 or more outs, particularly with the enticing plus odds, I believe there’s even greater value in focusing on his strikeout total. Notably, eight of the last ten starting pitchers who faced the Braves exceeded their strikeouts prop. The two most notable among them were Justin Steele and Wheeler. Steele recorded six strikeouts, while Wheeler achieved a remarkable 10 on Monday.
Considering we can reasonably expect six innings from Nola, attaining five strikeouts appears entirely feasible. Over the past two years, he has maintained an average of 7.4 strikeouts per start against the Braves, even achieving eight strikeouts in five of those matchups.
Pick: Aaron Nola over 4.5 strikeouts -140
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