NFL teams are having a hard time scoring during night games.
During “Thursday Night Football” this week, the Steelers and Titans combined for 36 points during a 20-16 Pittsburgh win, hitting the under by a single point and continuing a two-year trend of anemic offensive performances during primetime contests.
The cause is unknown; it could be extra commercial breaks slowing down the pace of the game or just players crashing under the bright lights.
Regardless of the cause, heading into Sunday’s primetime matchup between the Bills and Bengals, the under is 60-29 during night games over the past two seasons, according to Action Network’s Evan Abrams.
This season alone, 19 of 26 (73 percent) primetime games have gone under.
If you put $100 on the under during every primetime game this season, you’d have more than $1,000 in your pocket now.
Late games are on another level, but betting on the under has been a winning strategy during all NFL games this season.
Teams have gone under the total in 59.8 percent of games in 2023, which is the highest under rate since 1990, per Abrams.
After peaking at a record 24.8 points per game in 2020, the average points per game per team has dropped every season since then.
This season’s 21.8 points per game per team would be the fewest since the 2017 season and the second-fewest since 2010.
Betting on the NFL?
The wild under trend will be tested once again Sunday night in a battle between two of the league’s best quarterbacks: Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.
The total for that game is set at around 50 points as of this writing — currently the second-highest over/under for Week 9 — so it’ll take some big plays for over bettors to reverse their fortunes.
On Monday, the Jets will get their chance to challenge the total, which is set at 40 points at the time of writing, when they host the Chargers in primetime.
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