The struggling Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) travel to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) on “Monday Night Football.”
The Bengals have lost three straight games and will be without star quarterback Joe Burrow for the remainder of the season.
Jake Browning steps in again for the Bengals in a matchup against a stout Jacksonville defense.
Trevor Lawrence will be leading the Jaguars as they look to continue a great season atop the AFC South and challenge for the conference’s top seed.
Let’s take a look at some of the plays I am targeting on PrizePicks.
Joe Mixon less than 48.5 rushing yards
With Jake Browning taking over at quarterback, the Bengals passing attack is not nearly as feared as it was when Joe Burrow was behind center.
This should allow the Jaguars to focus on keeping Mixon limited in this spot.
The Jaguars’ defense has been an extremely formidable unit against the run this season, as they have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL.
Mixon has recorded less than 48.5 rushing yards in three of the last four games, and he has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry on the season.
As a double-digit ‘dog in this game, the Bengals project to play from behind, which should limit the rushing attempts for Mixon.
Mixon faces a difficult run defense and has struggled with efficiency this season. The likelihood of a negative game script should keep him below this projection.
Evan Engram more than 46.5 receiving yards
Engram owns a very healthy 21 percent target share this season, ranking him second on the Jaguars, just 0.2 percent behind Christian Kirk.
Engram has averaged more than seven targets and 47.6 receiving yards per game this season.
He gets one of the best matchups in the league tonight against a struggling Bengals defense.
The Bengals have allowed 70.8 yards per game to the tight end position, which is the second-highest mark in the NFL.
Engram has recorded more than 46.5 receiving yards in six of the 11 games he has played. He came within five yards of the projection in two additional games.
Considering his healthy target share and elite matchup, Engram should surpass this projection.
Betting on the NFL?
Tee Higgins more than 5.5 receiving targets
Higgins, who makes his return from a hamstring injury that has sidelined him since Week 9, owns a healthy 19 percent target share on the season and has averaged more than seven targets per game.
The only two games he has not earned at least 5.5 targets this season were Week 4, when he injured his ribs and played only 51 percent of the snaps, and Week 6, when he was still limited with the ribs injury (after sitting out Week 5) and played only 54 percent of the snaps.
He has played more than 80 percent of the snaps in games he has been healthy.
The benefit of selecting the targets projection rather than receptions for Higgins is we do not have to rely on the accuracy of the backup quarterback. We simply need Higgins to continue to earn opportunities, which he has done at an outstanding rate in his career even playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase.
The Bengals also project to play from behind in this game, which should lead to more passing attempts.
A clean bill of health and a negative game script should allow Higgins to beat this projection for receiving targets.
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