Two London clubs in the middle of very different seasons meet Monday.
Tottenham Hotspur, who can re-claim their spot at the top of the table with a win, are +115 home favorites on the three-way moneyline against Chelsea, who are desperate to get their season going after a 3-3-4 (W-D-L) start.
Is the betting market underrating Spurs in this spot?
Tottenham vs. Chelsea prediction
Tottenham is humming right now.
Spurs are the only team without a loss in the Premier League this season, and can put some distance between themselves and the chasing pack with a win.
Tottenham would only be two points ahead of Manchester City with a victory, but it would be five points ahead of Arsenal and Liverpool and nine in front of Newcastle. Those are not insurmountable gaps, but it would afford Tottenham a decent margin for error as we head into the busiest time of the campaign.
Chelsea’s dreams of getting right back into the top four after an abysmal 2022-23 season are already on life support. The Blues come into Monday’s fixture 12 points adrift of Arsenal and Liverpool with seven teams between them.
This could be classified as a must-win game for the Blues even though they’re the underdogs at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
If you look at the standings, you could be a little bit perplexed why Spurs aren’t a bigger favorite in this spot. Tottenham is 14 points ahead of Chelsea and has the better goal difference (+13 to +2), but under the hood there are some signals that suggest the Blues have been a much better outfit than their record portrays. In fact, the Blues have the better expected goal difference through the first 10 matches of the season and their defensive work has been terrific.
The problem for Chelsea is the same issue that plagued it last season — the Blues just can’t finish.
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Chelsea isn’t creating scoring chances at an elite rate, but the Blues are generating 1.82 xG per match, but they’re only scoring 1.2. It’s easy to suggest that Chelsea should regress positively in front of goal, but this is not a new problem and a robust sample size tells us that this could just be the team’s fatal flaw.
It just may not be very good at finishing right now.
Chelsea’s defense stands a decent chance at slowing down Tottenham’s attack, while the Blues likely won’t be able to run away with this match themselves and that is a good formula for a bet on the draw.
The Bet: Draw +280 (DraftKings)
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