At this point in the season, your fantasy baseball waiver wire options are probably looking pretty bleak.
Rookie pitchers continue to get scooped up at an alarming rate while the hitters shuttle back and forth to the minors with every unsuccessful at-bat.
You obviously can try to bolster your roster with the available role players, but you are better off exploring the fantasy trade market.
You don’t have to chase the superstars, as their price tags are always too high, but there are a number of struggling players to consider as prime buy-low candidates.
For those who find spreadsheets and other data tables complicated and cumbersome, there is an easy way to track whether a struggling player is just unlucky and capable of turning things around.
The metric is called “Batting Average on Balls in Play” (BABIP), and it measures a player’s batting average exclusively on balls hit into the field of play.
It removes outcomes not affected by the opposing defense, so though yes, home runs are not part of it, neither are strikeouts or foul-outs.
Typically, what you are looking for is a BABIP right around .300 for a player.
The league average in 2024 is actually sitting around .280, but those of us who like to win prefer players with numbers that are better than league average.
The key to your research is looking at what a player’s current BABIP mark is and what his career mark has been.
Oftentimes, we see a player struggling with a .185 BABIP but has a career mark of .310.
Understanding that MLB statistics often regress to the mean, you can usually bank on that player rebounding in a positive fashion.
And vice versa for those who have a current .385 BABIP but a .285 mark for their career.
Over the past two weeks, since coming off the injured list, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki has posted a .200 BABIP, which left his average at .182 over his previous 12 games.
His fantasy managers are frustrated, which means now is the perfect time to float an offer.
He isn’t Juan Soto, but he also isn’t Jesse Winker.
Suzuki has a career BABIP of .331 and should rebound in spectacular fashion.
Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is another strong buy-low candidate with his current .219 BABIP, as well as Josh Naylor and Anthony Santander.
Sure, you can chase the likes of Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor as well and hope their managers are completely frustrated, but again, you don’t have to shoot for the moon.
All you need to do is improve the quality of your worst hitter, and some of these currently struggling hitters are ready to turn things around.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.
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