With half of the NFL teams reaching nine games played and the other half at eight, we are officially halfway through the league’s 17-game season.
And we’ve gotten to this point with no clear-cut favorite to win the league’s MVP award.
The three at the top – Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson – have been mainstays, with Hurts and Jackson making steady rises over the last month and Mahomes keeping pace with his lofty preseason expectations.
And while Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa’s odds have fallen to the lowest they’ve been since Week 2, a new riser is making a hard charge toward the front.
Don’t look now, but Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are back.
In the last 24 hours, Burrow saw his odds go from +2000 to +900. Just four weeks ago, he sat at +4000. A week before that: +8000.
That’s what a four-game winning streak – punctuated by convincing back-to-back-to-back victories over Seattle, San Francisco and Buffalo – will do.
And with a favorable second-half schedule, maybe this award all comes down to a New Year’s Eve matchup with Mahomes in Arrowhead Stadium. Hell, at the Bengals’ pace, maybe AFC supremacy comes down to that game as well.
(Via BetMGM Sportsbook)
Current NFL MVP odds
1. Patrick Mahomes +275
2023 stats: 2,442 Passing Yards, 68.6% Completion, 7.3 Avg., 17 TD, 8 INT, 96.7 Rating
Mahomes’ showing in Germany on Sunday was underwhelming, just like his season has been.
Fair or not, the standards are a lot higher when you’re a two-time regular-season MVP coming off an historic season.
He gets a head-to-head matchup with Hurts in two weeks that could solidify the No. 1 MVP standing he has held for almost the entire season.
2. Jalen Hurts +300
2023 stats: 2,347 Passing Yards, 68.9% Completion, 7.7 Avg., 15 TD, 8 INT, 97.0 Rating
Hurts’ 2023 stat line after nine games is nearly identical to Mahomes’.
The big difference is the Eagles QB has seven touchdowns on the ground; Mahomes has none.
We’ll know a lot more about Hurts’ chances to win MVP in a month and a half.
After a bye this week, the Eagles play Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas and Seattle. Ouch!
3. Lamar Jackson +400
2023 stats: 1,954 Passing Yards,71.5% Completion, 7.7 Avg., 9 TD, 3 INT, 100.8 Rating
Jackson leads all NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage.
Not bad for a run-first gadget quarterback.
He also leads all QBs with 440 rushing yards (by more than 100 yards) and has five touchdowns on the ground.
The Ravens have won four straight games in impressive fashion and sit atop the ultra-competitive NFC North at 7-2.
Jackson has been a big reason for the surge.
4. Tua Tagovailoa +600
2023 stats: 2,609 Passing Yards, 69.5% Completion, 8.5 Avg., 19 TD, 7 INT, 106.4 Rating
You could make a good argument that Tagovailoa will finish with the best statistical season of any of the top-5 leaders for MVP, but ultimately, how Miami finishes will likely have a bigger impact on whether he wins it.
Losing two of the last three games soundly to teams whose quarterbacks are ahead of you in the MVP race won’t help.
And facing six opponents (Jets twice) in the final eight games who own top-12 pass defenses (four in the top 5) will be a daunting task for Tagovailoa.
Betting on the NFL?
5. Joe Burrow +900
2023 stats: 1,861 Passing Yards, 66.9% Completion, 6.0 Avg., 12 TD, 4 INT, 90.6 Rating
It’s all right in front of Burrow, with a favorable schedule and a Week 17 showdown with Mahomes that will no doubt leave an indelible mark – good or bad – for MVP voters.
The only question is, can Burrow overcome his poor start out of the gate?
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