Regrets are something you have to deal with when managing a fantasy football team. Inevitably, you will have one, or many, in any given season.
A few weeks ago, in a highly competitive industry league, the Madman paid roughly 30 percent of our FAAB on free agent Kareem Hunt, in the wake of Nick Chubb’s injury.
That investment has not paid off. It was clearly a mistake to pay that much, even in a league that deep and with so few waiver options.
So how do we fix it? In this case, we were inching toward cutting him and just chalking it up as a sunk cost. But … after a couple of lackluster games, then a bye week, and an injury to starting quarterback Deshaun Watson (allowing defenses to pay more attention to stopping the run) … right before we were ready to hit the “Drop” button beside his name in waiver wire claims this week, we now have reason to pause our panic.
Even if he isn’t going to be the lead RB we speculated he might be initially — taking a back seat to Jerome Ford — Hunt can provide some value. To get a good approximation of what to expect, we’re going to isolate the data that best represents the long-standing workload splits between Chubb and Hunt.
Because Hunt had two different injuries that disrupted his 2021 season — and 2020 and 2019 seem far away when looking through this lens — we’re gong to focus on just his 2022 numbers.
We don’t expect huge receiving numbers for either Hunt or Ford, so we’re going to focus on the carries. Hunt got roughly 30 percent of carries, compared to Chubb’s 71 percent.
We would expect Hunt to get a larger share of the workload with Ford than we saw with Chubb, primarily because Ford is not Nick Chubb. After a couple of weeks of getting Hunt up to speed/into game shape, we saw that this past week vs. the stiff 49ers defense.
Hunt had 12 carries (47 yards and a score) compared to Ford’s 17 attempts (84 yards). That’s a 41 percent carryshare of Hunt, well above his 28 percent with Chubb. This is in line with what we would have theorized, so let’s apply that standard to our 2022 Hunt data.
If Hunt had seen 41 percent of carries last season, that would give him 173 rush attempts instead of 123. That’s a 29 percent increase.
Hunt averaged 7.4 fantasy points per game in PPR last season. A 29 percent boost would get that above 9.5. Once you factor in a slightly larger increase in work, potentially with a backup QB or thanks to a savage defense that will help keep the offense on the field more often, and you get a version of Hunt who should produce better than 10 PPR points per game.
That isn’t someone you break the bank to acquire, but it is an option worth having on the bench during upcoming byes.
Hey, look at me!!!
Jeff Wilson Jr. RB, Dolphins
We expect him back soon from a hip injury, and when he returns, he has value as long as De’Von Achane is out. (Feel similarly about Roschon Johnson in banged-up Bears backfield).
Devin Singletary RB, Texans
He looks to have gone from bench bum to committee member in the Houston backfield. Worth a stash on your bench in case he edges ahead of the aggressively mediocre Dameon Pierce.
Wan’Dale Robinson WR, Giants
Has been the team’s top target for two straight games. Regardless of QB, worth grabbing for the breakout potential.
Michael Mayer TE, Raiders
At a thin position, any tight end option who makes a blip on the radar causes a commotion. After one catch the first four games, he has seven over the past two — including five on Sunday. Make room by dropping David Njoku, Hunter Henry, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Higbee, etc.
Look away, I’m hideous!
Joe Burrow QB, Bengals
Thought he might be back to form after a strong Week 5, but then Week 6 happened. Keep alternative options handy — 49ers, Bills, Texans and Ravens follow a bye.
Betting on the NFL?
Elijah Mitchell RB, 49ers
Mitchell was the preseason handcuff for the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey. With CMC now dealing with oblique issue … it looks like Jordan Mason is the backup you want to have.
Zach Moss RB, Colts
Kudos to Moss for playing well since Jonathan Taylor’s return, but we stand by our initial stance: It won’t last. Try to sell him to someone who buys into a Colts committee concept.
DJ Moore, WR, Bears
Moore has been erratic with the erratic Justin Fields at QB. What is going to happen if Tyson Bagent (or Nathan Peterman) have to play? We feel safe assuming Bagent is not the next Tom Brady (or even the next Brock Purdy).
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