We don’t like to rest on our laurels around these parts, but we will send a word of gratitude to the Indiana Hoosiers for not only covering against Penn State, but doing it with very little fuss.
We suspected the Nittany Lions might come out flat after their loss to Ohio State and that’s exactly what happened, as the Hoosiers led for most of the first half before Penn State pulled away but never threatened to cover the huge spread.
They rarely come as easy as that.
Since things went so well last week, we may as well stay in the Big Ten this Saturday and target another situational spot between a national title contender and an also-ran from the state of Indiana.
Despite the fact that they’re 8-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country you could make an argument that we don’t really know that much about Michigan this season.
Sure we know the Wolverines are very good, but their schedule has been so soft that we can’t be all that certain of where the ceiling or the floor is for this team.
You can only beat the teams put in front of you and Michigan has done that in style — the Wolverines have yet to give up more than 10 points in a contest and have held seven of their eight opponents to under a touchdown — but the team has yet to be even remotely tested.
The Wolverines have played ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana and Michigan State. No wonder their average margin of victory is 35 points.
And it’s not as if this is a massive test for the Wolverines, either.
The Boilermakers have been underwhelming this season with a 2-6 record and some ugly losses, but this is a really tricky spot for Michigan even if it’s at home.
First of all, there’s a lot of off-the-field smoke surrounding the program in the form of an NCAA investigation into whether or not the Wolverines were stealing play-calling signs of their opponents.
The inquiry has gone on for two weeks and other Big Ten schools are adamant that Michigan should be punished for what certainly seems like a clandestine operation.
It’s unlikely that any punishment will be handed down to the Wolverines before the game on Saturday, but it’s never a good thing when situations like this hover over teams.
The other factor that makes this an enticing spot to fade Michigan is that Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines have a massive showdown at Penn State on deck.
Betting on College Football?
The Wolverines have blown the doors off plenty of opponents this season, but this is the first time they’ve find themselves in a lookahead situation.
Michigan will surely err on the side of caution if this game is already wrapped up in the second half.
That could mean the Wolverines will rotate in their backups or just keep the ball on the ground — something they already do — to keep the clock moving.
The Action Network projects this spread right around 28 points, so there’s already a smidge of value on Purdue from a numbers perspective, but when you bake in the situational spot and the off-the-field distractions, I think there’s more than enough wiggle room for the Boilermakers to get out of Ann Arbor with a cover.
Take Purdue +32.5 -110 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Source
