Now that the NFL’s Thanksgiving slate is in the rearview mirror, it’s time to focus our attention on the Week 12 Sunday schedule.
It is quite a bit smaller than usual, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have plenty of options to choose from.
I have scoured the PrizePicks lobby to come up with my four favorite DFS picks for Sunday’s games.
Michael Pittman more than 68.5 receiving yards
This is one of my favorite games to target for passing and receiving yards because these two defenses really struggle to defend the pass.
Even better, the Buccaneers have a true pass-funnel defense, ranking 20th in DVOA against the pass and third in DVOA against the run.
The Colts will try to run the ball, but likely with little success.
That’s where Pittman comes in; the Colts wide receiver has racked up at least 64 receiving yards in six of 10 games this season and is facing a secondary that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Travis Etienne more than 87.5 rushing + receiving yards
This play is less about the matchup than it is about Etienne’s opportunity for volume..
Etienne’s touch count has dipped over the last two weeks, but that’s because the Jaguars faced two of the best defenses in the NFL (49ers and Titans). Prior to that, he had touch totals of 27, 17, 21 and 30 in consecutive games.
Expect him to see north of 20 touches this week against the Texans, who have been mediocre against running backs this season. I like his chances to go over 100 yards from scrimmage, so the projection of 87.5 rushing and receiving yards seems more than doable.
Derrick Henry more than 68.5 rushing yards
There are few things in life that I love more than targeting running backs against the Carolina Panthers, who are last in DVOA against the run and rush EPA this season.
After ugly performances the last three weeks from Will Levis, the TItans will want to establish the run early and often. This is generally the time of year when Henry starts to hit his stride, and now he gets to face the worst run defense in the NFL.
His usage has largely depended on the score of the game, so it’s worth noting that the Titans are four-point home favorites this week.
Betting on the NFL?
Russell Wilson fewer than 197.5 passing yards
I’m taking a rare under this week with Wilson’s low passing yards total.
The Broncos have been winning games recently, but they’ve had an unsustainable turnover advantage.
The offense hasn’t exactly been humming, as Wilson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in five of the last six games.
This week, he squares off against the Browns, who are first in both DVOA against the pass and rush EPA. Cleveland only allows 143.7 passing yards per game, which is an impressive feat.
Expect the Broncos to lean heavily on the run, especially since they are 1.5-point home favorites.
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