We were 2 yards — 2 yards! — away from a perfect Week 12.
Although I am a Jaguars fan, I was rooting for their game against the Texans last week to go into overtime, as Travis Etienne needed just 2 more yards from scrimmage to secure a 4-for-4 week with my picks.
We’ll look for that perfect outing in Week 13.
I have scoured the PrizePicks lobby and have found my favorite four selections for Sunday’s slate.
Tua Tagovailoa more than 282.5 passing yards
The scenario of concern with this pick would be if the Dolphins get up big in the first half and then coast to victory.
Nevertheless, we’ve seen the Commanders keep up with good opponents this season and we’ve seen the Dolphins keep their foot on the gas in games where they’ve been ahead.
The matchup doesn’t get any better than this for Tagovailoa, as Washington ranks last in both DVOA against the pass and dropback EPA.
Tagovailoa has thrown for more than 300 yards three times this season and should have plenty of time in the pocket since the Commanders traded away their two best pass rushers at the deadline.
Jaylen Warren more than 77.5 rushing + receiving yards
Even if you don’t believe the switch in offensive coordinators will lead to more touches for Warren, the Steelers running back finds himself in an elite matchup at home.
The Cardinals are 30th in both DVOA against the run and rush EPA.
Even in a split role with Najee Harris, Warren has topped 100 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games.
I like taking the rushing and receiving projection here, as it gives him more outs.
He’s heavily involved in both aspects, so I’d rather combine the yardage instead of relying on rushing or receiving alone.
Derrick Henry more than 62.5 rushing yards
Henry was featured in last week’s article, and while it took him all four quarters, he did end up with enough rushing yards to exceed his projection.
Betting on the NFL?
I’m going back to the well in Week 13, as it is officially D-Henber (D-Henry + December) — the time of year when the Titans running back always seems to play his best.
He draws an exploitable matchup at home against the Colts, who are 24th in DVOA against the run and 23rd in rush EPA.
Henry has averaged more than 20 carries in games the Titans have won this season, so if you think they can be competitive in this one, you should be confident in his ability to rack up at least 63 rushing yards.
Chris Boswell more than 1.5 field goals made
Boswell has made at least two field goals in seven of his last 10 games, and during that stretch, the Steelers have been one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL.
A coordinator change helped the offense last week, and now the Steelers draw an elite matchup at home against the Cardinals, who are 30th or worse in DVOA against the run and the pass.
Expect the Steelers to move the ball at will in this game, which means more scoring opportunities and hopefully more field goal attempts.
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