The Washington Capitals were left for dead one week into the NHL season.
The consensus projection for the Caps in the preseason was that they would struggle to even stick around the fringes of the playoff race in the Eastern Conference and that popular prediction looked correct after Washington got off to a 1-3-1 start and sported a -12 goal difference through five games.
A month later Washington is in the midst of an 8-1-1 stretch and riding a four-game winning streak that has the same people who called for this team to tear it down asking if the Caps can gatecrash the playoffs.
That change in tone is always a signal for bettors.
It’s time to sell high.
While the Caps deserve a ton of credit for bouncing back from a terrible start, their statistical portfolio suggests there are some smoke and mirrors at play here.
Washington has allowed 19 goals at five-on-five over its last 10 games, but its 25.5 expected goals against suggests that a lot of the Capitals’ defensive success is just hot goaltending.
Further to that point, the Caps have allowed the fifth-most high-danger scoring chances in the NHL over their last 10 games.
Betting on the NHL?
This team is winning in spite of a porous defense.
The Sabres have been inconsistent out of the gate this season and have issues of their own to sort out — including overcoming an injury to Tage Thompson — but this a solid opportunity to back Buffalo as an underdog against a team that looks overpriced due to its current hot stretch.
The play: Sabres +105.
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