Monday’s game between the Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) and the Detroit Lions (5-2) at Ford Field is an intriguing matchup of two teams coming off embarrassing defeats to underdogs.
The question is: How will they respond Monday night?
Detroit, coming off a loss to the Ravens, will again be without running back David Montgomery, who scored six touchdowns in the five games he played before injuring his ribs.
The Raiders are coming off a loss to the woeful Chicago Bears. Luckily for them, Jimmy Garropolo is expected to be back under center in Detroit.
Let’s take a look at some of the “Monday Night Football” plays I am targeting on PrizePicks.
Sam LaPorta more than 44.5 Receiving Yards
LaPorta is putting together one of the best rookie seasons we have ever seen from a tight end.
In seven games, he has compiled 35 receptions for 377 yards and three touchdowns, putting him on pace for 85 catches, 915 yards and seven scores over a 17-game season.
He has eclipsed 45 receiving yards in five games, including all three he has played at home in the Detroit’s offense-friendly dome.
Montgomery’s absence likely forces the Lions to throw the ball far more than they would if Montgomery was in his typical workhorse role.
Additionally, Amon-Ra St. Brown – Detroit’s top option in the passing attack – popped up on the injury report with an illness late in the week. He’s expected to play, but if he is anything less than 100 percent that could increase LaPorta’s target share for this game.
The matchup for LaPorta is outstanding against the Raiders, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
I think LaPorta beats this projection easily in a plus-matchup with Montgomery sidelined again.
Jared Goff more than 32.5 Pass Attempts
Goff has gone over this number in five of seven games this season.
Last week, he attempted a whopping 53 passes against Baltimore. The Lions were playing from behind the entire game, so they were certainly throwing more than they intended to. But the week before, they were in control of the Buccaneers throughout the game and Goff attempted 44 passes.
I expect the Lions to lean much more on Goff’s right arm in the absence of their top running back.
It also helps they are indoors at home this week. Goff attempted more than 32.5 passes in seven of nine home games last season and two of three home games this season.
The home game in which he did not attempt at least 33 passes this season was a 42-24 blowout of the Panthers where the Lions were up multiple scores in the final three quarters.
As long as the Raiders can keep this game close, Goff should surpass this projection.
Josh Jacobs less than 61.5 Rushing Yards
Jacobs has cleared this total in just three of seven games this season.
In two of the games that he had more than 61.5 rushing yards, he required 20-plus attempts to get there and in the other one he logged just 62 yards.
After missing the entire Raiders’ training camp and preseason in a contract holdout, Jacobs has been one of the least-efficient running backs in the league this season, averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt.
He gets a brutal matchup here against a Lions’ rush defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game.
The Raiders are expected to be trailing in this game, setting up a likely game flow that will make it difficult for Jacobs to rack up more than 61.5 rushing yards.
Betting on the NFL?
Josh Reynolds more than 35.5 Receiving Yards
Josh Reynolds has been the clear No. 3 option for Goff this season, behind St. Brown and LaPorta.
Sophomore wide receiver Jameson Williams has yet to cement a role since returning from his suspension two weeks ago. He has just four receptions in three games.
Reynolds has surpassed this projection in six of seven games this season.
In the one game he failed to beat this projection (Week 3 against the Falcons), he was limited by a groin injury and did not earn a single target.
Reynolds also thrives in Ford Field, where he is averaging 71 yards per game in the two contests he has played at full health.
We should see a pass-heavy attack from the Lions without their lead running back, giving Reynolds a great shot to record more than 35.5 receiving yards.
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