It’s been a long time since the NHL Hart Trophy race has been this wide open.
Connor McDavid had the award all but wrapped up by the time Christmas rolled around last year, and in most seasons we see maybe five or six players separate themselves from the pack at the 20-game mark.
It’s very rare that things unfold the way they have so far this campaign, with 20-plus players building legitimate cases to be in the MVP conversation at Thanksgiving.
There have been plenty of movers in the Hart Trophy market already — Artemi Panarin, William Nylander, Jack Hughes and Quinn Hughes have seen their numbers shorten considerably — but there are still plenty of players who have great value in this market as we head into the second quarter of the season.
(Odds via BetMGM)
Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers (50/1)
The key to betting awards in-season is beating the market to a breakout stretch from a player and that’s the plan here with Matthew Tkachuk.
The talismanic Florida Panther entered has only three goals, but he’s sixth in the NHL in shots on goal and is being held back by an unsustainably low 4.0 shooting percentage.
Tkachuk is still a point-per-game player despite his cold streak and when the pucks start going in — he’s a career 12.4 percent shooter — his number should pop and he’ll quickly move up the board.
Get in before it’s too late.
Sidney Crosby, Penguins (80/1)
One thing to always remember when betting on awards is that human beings — most of the time journalists — vote on the winner.
That means a romantic narrative, like an all-time great putting together one of his best seasons at age 36, could be what puts a player over the top.
Betting on the NHL?
Crosby has been sensational for Pittsburgh with 22 points in 17 games and is one of a few candidates who could win this award without coming close to leading the NHL in scoring.
Crosby’s age is certainly something to think about when it comes to betting him in this market, but that concern is already baked into the price. If he were six years younger, he’d be one of the favorites.
Kyle Connor, Jets (100/1)
Sometimes you can just keep things simple when trying to find betting value and that’s the plan with this triple-digit long shot.
Kyle Connor is tied with Auston Matthews for the NHL lead in goals with 14 in 17 contests. Connor’s output may seem unsustainable next to Matthews or other superstars like Nikita Kucherov, William Nylander or David Pastrnak, but that just isn’t the case.
Connor did have a down year by his standards in 2022-23, but he still managed to score 31 goals despite posting the second-worst shooting percentage of his career.
He may not have the name value that other contenders have, but there’s a chance that Connor’s goal output is too hard to ignore when the season comes to a close.
He’s already put together a 47-goal season in his career, so there’s no reason he can’t find a way to crack 60 with the way he’s going.
You’ll be glad you’re holding this ticket if Connor manages to do that.
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