Week 9 NFL player props time has arrived, and we have a few players we are targeting in an excellent slate of games.
On the season, we are 18-21 (46.2 percent) but sitting on 13.6 units of profit because we are constantly testing the waters on long shot player props.
In the past, readers were told about anytime touchdown scorer props, but odds on those seem to be going by the wayside and haven’t adjusted to the historically low offensive touchdowns that have plagued the NFL this season.
Yards are where all the love is right now, so be sure to target it and shop lines. Thankfully for you, the best lines on each of these props are listed, and you won’t find any better odds, based on the time of writing.
Below, we target some bad defenses.
Week 9 NFL player props and picks
Jonathan Taylor over 64.5 rushing yards -110 | 120+ +750 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Carolina Panthers are riding high, feeling great after obtaining their first win of the season.
Full stop — this team is one of, if not the worst, in the NFL.
Pro Football Focus ranks the Panthers in the bottom-five in total offense and total defense, with their run defense particularly bad; the worst in the NFL.
They have 30th ranked total defense in DVOA and dead last in run defense DVOA.
Plain and simple the Panthers are a run funnel, allowing 139.4 rushing yards per game.
There is obvious concern with Zack Moss grabbing some of the carries, but Taylor is over 64.5 rushing yards in each of his last two games.
If he grabs a stranglehold on the backfield this week, he could easily cash the high-end of this ladder at 120 rushing yards, but if Moss continues to siphon carries, he’s still in a prime spot to go over 64.5.
Raheem Mostert over 51.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM) | 125+ (+1600, Bet365 Sportsbook)
Bet365 is offering this gift of a line on Mostert’s rushing yards and should be bet the second you see it, if you have access to that sportsbook. Bet365 is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa.
For reference, Mostert to accumulate 125 yards is as low as +920 on other sportsbooks is not even being offered by DraftKings.
The Chiefs’ pass defense is among the league’s best, fourth best in pass DVOA, but among the worst in run defense, 23rd in run DVOA.
The Chiefs are also allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per carry in the NFL, while the Dolphins are at the very top in the NFL, at 5.9.
Mostert’s 5.4 yards per carry is second-best in the NFL behind only Jets running back Breece Hall.
If you do not have access to Bet365, you are fine targeting over 51.5 rushing yards -110, widely available throughout the betting market.
Betting on the NFL?
Rashee Rice over 45.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars Sportsbook) | 125+ (+1625, Bet365)
Another prop to target in what should be a high-scoring game in Frankfurt, Germany, on Sunday morning.
The Dolphins’ run defense is top-ranked according to PFF, so the Chiefs might need to get into an old-school shootout this weekend.
Rice is being undervalued across the betting market as the budding No.1 receiver despite being a rookie.
He has picked up at least five targets in five of his last six games, coming down with at least four of them in four straight.
Rice has surpassed 56 receiving yards in three straight and this game is expected to be a shootout. Jump on that one early and often, again on Bet365.
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